Central Asia's Vast Biofuel Opportunity

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The current discoveries of a International Energy Administration whistleblower that the IEA might have distorted crucial oil projections under extreme U.S.

The current discoveries of a International Energy Administration whistleblower that the IEA may have distorted essential oil projections under extreme U.S. pressure is, if real (and whistleblowers seldom come forward to advance their careers), a slow-burning thermonuclear surge on future international oil production. The Bush administration's actions in pressuring the IEA to underplay the rate of decline from existing oil fields while overplaying the chances of discovering brand-new reserves have the possible to throw federal governments' long-lasting preparation into mayhem.


Whatever the truth, increasing long term international demands appear specific to outstrip production in the next years, specifically offered the high and rising expenses of establishing brand-new super-fields such as Kazakhstan's offshore Kashagan and Brazil's southern Atlantic Jupiter and Carioca fields, which will need billions in financial investments before their first barrels of oil are produced.


In such a situation, ingredients and alternatives such as biofuels will play an ever-increasing function by extending beleaguered production quotas. As market forces and increasing prices drive this innovation to the leading edge, among the wealthiest prospective production locations has actually been absolutely neglected by investors already - Central Asia. Formerly the USSR's cotton "plantation," the region is poised to become a major player in the production of biofuels if sufficient foreign financial investment can be procured. Unlike Brazil, where biofuel is made mainly from sugarcane, or the United States, where it is mainly distilled from corn, Central Asia's ace resource is a native plant, Camelina sativa.


Of the previous Soviet Caucasian and Central Asian republics, those clustered around the coasts of the Caspian, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have seen their economies boom since of record-high energy rates, while Turkmenistan is waiting in the wings as a rising producer of gas.


Farther to the east, in Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, geographical seclusion and relatively little hydrocarbon resources relative to their Western Caspian next-door neighbors have actually mainly hindered their ability to capitalize rising global energy needs up to now. Mountainous Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan stay largely reliant for their electrical needs on their Soviet-era hydroelectric facilities, but their increased need to create winter electrical energy has caused autumnal and winter water discharges, in turn severely affecting the agriculture of their western downstream next-door neighbors Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.


What these three downstream nations do have however is a Soviet-era tradition of farming production, which in Uzbekistan's and Turkmenistan case was mainly directed towards cotton production, while Kazakhstan, beginning in the 1950s with Khrushchev's "Virgin Lands" programs, has ended up being a major producer of wheat. Based upon my discussions with Central Asian federal government authorities, provided the thirsty demands of cotton monoculture, foreign proposals to diversify agrarian production towards biofuel would have fantastic appeal in Astana, Ashgabat and Tashkent and to a lower level Astana for those sturdy investors willing to bet on the future, especially as a plant native to the region has already proven itself in trials.


Known in the West as false flax, wild flax, linseed dodder, German sesame and Siberian oilseed, camelina is bring in increased clinical interest for its oleaginous qualities, with numerous European and American business already examining how to produce it in industrial amounts for biofuel. In January Japan Airlines undertook a historic test flight utilizing camelina-based bio-jet fuel, becoming the very first Asian carrier to explore flying on fuel originated from sustainable feedstocks during a one-hour demonstration flight from Tokyo's Haneda Airport. The test was the conclusion of a 12-month assessment of camelina's functional performance capability and prospective industrial viability.


As an alternative energy source, camelina has much to suggest it. It has a high oil content low in saturated fat. In contrast to Central Asia's thirsty "king cotton," camelina is drought-resistant and immune to spring freezing, requires less fertilizer and herbicides, and can be used as a rotation crop with wheat, which would make it of particular interest in Kazakhstan, now Central Asia's major wheat exporter. Another reward of camelina is its tolerance of poorer, less fertile conditions. An acre sown with camelina can produce up to 100 gallons of oil and when planted in rotation with wheat, camelina can increase wheat production by 15 percent. A ton (1000 kg) of camelina will include 350 kg of oil, of which pushing can draw out 250 kg. Nothing in camelina production is lost as after processing, the plant's particles can be utilized for animals silage. Camelina silage has a particularly appealing concentration of omega-3 fats that make it a particularly fine livestock feed candidate that is simply now getting recognition in the U.S. and Canada. Camelina is quick growing, produces its own natural herbicide (allelopathy) and contends well versus weeds when an even crop is established. According to Britain's Bangor University's Centre for Alternative Land Use, "Camelina could be an ideal low-input crop ideal for bio-diesel production, due to its lower requirements for nitrogen fertilizer than oilseed rape."


Camelina, a branch of the mustard household, is native to both Europe and Central Asia and hardly a brand-new crop on the scene: historical proof indicates it has actually been cultivated in Europe for a minimum of three millennia to produce both veggie oil and animal fodder.


Field trials of production in Montana, currently the center of U.S. camelina research study, showed a vast array of results of 330-1,700 lbs of seed per acre, with oil content differing between 29 and 40%. Optimal seeding rates have been identified to be in the 6-8 pound per acre variety, as the seeds' little size of 400,000 seeds per lb can develop issues in germination to attain an optimum plant density of around 9 plants per sq. ft.


Camelina's capacity might enable Uzbekistan to start breaking out of its most dolorous tradition, the imposition of a cotton monoculture that has warped the nation's efforts at agrarian reform since accomplishing independence in 1991. Beginning in the late 19th century, the Russian federal government determined that Central Asia would become its cotton plantation to feed Moscow's growing fabric industry. The procedure was accelerated under the Soviets. While Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan were likewise bought by Moscow to sow cotton, Uzbekistan in particular was singled out to produce "white gold."


By the end of the 1930s the Soviet Union had become self-dependent in cotton; five years later on it had ended up being a major exporter of cotton, producing more than one-fifth of the world's production, concentrated in Uzbekistan, which produced 70 percent of the Soviet Union's output.


Try as it might to diversify, in the absence of options Tashkent remains wedded to cotton, producing about 3.6 million lots annually, which brings in more than $1 billion while constituting roughly 60 percent of the nation's hard cash earnings.


Beginning in the mid-1960s the Soviet government's directives for Central Asian cotton production mainly bankrupted the region's scarcest resource, water. Cotton uses about 3.5 acre feet of water per acre of plants, leading Soviet organizers to divert ever-increasing volumes of water from the area's two main rivers, the Amu Darya and Syr Darya, into inefficient watering canals, leading to the significant shrinking of the rivers' last location, the Aral Sea. The Aral, as soon as the world's fourth-largest inland sea with a location of 26,000 square miles, has diminished to one-quarter its original size in one of the 20th century's worst ecological disasters.


And now, the dollars and cents. Dr. Bill Schillinger at Washington State University just recently explained camelina's company design to Capital Press as: "At 1,400 pounds per acre at 16 cents a pound, camelina would bring in $224 per acre; 28-bushel white wheat at $8.23 per bushel would garner $230."


Central Asia has the land, the farms, the irrigation infrastructure and a modest wage scale in contrast to America or Europe - all that's missing is the foreign investment. U.S. investors have the money and access to the know-how of America's land grant universities. What is specific is that biofuel's market share will grow gradually; less specific is who will profit of establishing it as a feasible issue in Central Asia.


If the recent past is anything to go by it is not likely to be American and European financiers, fixated as they are on Caspian oil and gas.


But while the Japanese flight experiments indicate Asian interest, American investors have the scholastic knowledge, if they want to follow the Silk Road into establishing a new market. Certainly anything that lessens water use and pesticides, diversifies crop production and enhances the lot of their agrarian population will receive most careful consideration from Central Asia's governments, and farming and veggie oil processing plants are not just much less expensive than pipelines, they can be constructed more quickly.


And jatropha's biofuel potential? Another story for another time.

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